“Ex-post, Ex-ante” + Family Office uses bridge loan to buy Retail/Office building

Ex-post, Ex-ante" + Family Office uses bridge loan to buy Retail/Office building
Ex-post, Ex-ante" + Family Office uses bridge loan to buy Retail/Office building

Ex-post

The worsening energy crisis in Europe has taken the front page of most media channels this week as the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a 1,200 km natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, remains close, which is driving the Euro to a 20-year low vs. USD. The BBC reports that the annual energy bill for a typical UK household is £1,971. From 1 October, however, that’s due to rise 80% – to £3,549!!! Can you imagine paying USD4,000 a month for electricity?! The new incoming PM, Ms. Truss, will certainly be making this a top priority. We really hope for a mild winter in Europe for everyone’s interest. 

Meanwhile, the Yen is now close to a mind-boggling ¥145 vs. USD, a 24-year low! Oil at $82 is a very critical level and, technically speaking, could break lower, which could give some breathing room to the economy. Seeing Oil go from $120 a barrel in May 2022 to $85 now shows how volatile the world is and also how quickly demand can fall for the most popular commodities. 

In the US, Nonfarm payrolls were +315,000 in August (seasonally slow) vs. +526,000 in September, slightly lower than expected but a big month-on-month decline. Meanwhile, unemployment is at +3.7%, slightly higher than expected. The tight labour market while companies are announcing hiring freezes is peculiar. Could this be a recession where employment is less affected? ISM Manufacturing for August was 52.8, unchanged from July – not the decline I was hoping for to give us a little breathing room. 

US Rates30-year fixed 6.12%15-year fixed 5.32%
30-year jumbo 5.10%5/1 ARM 5.95%
* Reference only. These rates are Conforming rates, not applicable to Foreign Nationals. 

Ex-ante

I’m really keeping an eye on oil prices…I have a sinking feeling that Oil is such a consensus overweight for most hedge funds (and institutions) that technical breakthrough support (say $80) will see a further decline in oil prices which is good news for everyone! European energy prices are now generally 15-20% of GDP, and someone has to pay for it – the public or private sector. If the public pays for it, it will have to run a fiscal deficit of 15-20% of GDP, so more debt on top of the already growing debt problem. The private sector gets tricky, especially for countries that have piled on loads of debt in a short period of time. One country that sticks out is Sweden, with over 150% of private debt to GDP. Nationally, Sweden’s debt service ratio is 27% (highest on record). It appears Sweden, France, and South Korea are the most interest-rate sensitive countries, relatively speaking, according to BIS data. Watch this space. The negative soundbites on the European banking sector are going to get louder and more frequent.  

Buy now! Why now? 

We are in a perverse cycle where rising rates are actually squeezing up rental yields. The marginal buyer cannot afford to own given rate rises, and the Millennials also cannot afford and must rent – AND, to add to that, there is a 3.8M housing shortage according to the Fed. If you read last week’s “Ex-post, Ex-ante,” places like New York are seeing double-digit percentage increases in rents, BUT 39% of residents are looking to move given the high cost of living. It won’t be long where we are in a world where rates are 7-8%, BUT rental yields could be 15-20% (some parts of Texas can net you low teens yield already).

Look at this chart below from a Bloomberg article (7 September) US household debt service ratio has fallen from around 13% at the time of the last housing crisis to 10% now, according to the Fed. The amount households are spending to service their mortgage debt has been cut almost in half, from 7.18% in 2007 to a recent 3.89%! 

LOANS OF THE WEEK!

1. Indonesia family uses bridge loan to purchase $5.4M Retail/Office to maximize cash flow

Location: San DiegoPrice: $5,400,000
Property: Storefront Retail + OfficeLoan Amount: $3,500,000
Cap rate: 4.05% / 100% leasedLoan to value: 65%
Use: InvestmentRate: 8.5%
Loan: AM USA Bridge+Term: 3-year interest only

– Client was offered a bank loan at 5.75% but given that it is cash-flow based he would not be able to cover the 1.25x cash flow coverage typically required and would be able to get around 40% LTV. Our knowledge was valuable. We knew that California is a tough market as it is with very low CAP rates but the added increase in interest rates is making it even harder to achieve higher loan amounts.

– Our solution: Use a bridge loan with higher leverage, interest-only payment to get into the property. Then position the tenants for renewal of their lease agreements and refinance when rates come back, allowing for more leverage to be supported by the cash flow. Good news is the client is using this strategy to purchase more yielding assets in the US. Loan managed by our Head of Sales, [email protected]

2. Canada tech entrepreneur buys $1.25M condo in Miami

Location: MiamiPrice: $1,250,000
Property: CondoLoan Amount: $875,000
Use: InvestmentLoan to value: 70%
Loan: AM Foreign National+Rate: 6.875%
Term: 30-year fixed

– Client wanted to start building rental portfolio in the US to earn income and to begin developing a credit footprint for future family and business opportunities. Given the nature of his business, he was not able to find bank financing in Canada and we were able to find a mortgage which used his Canada credit and income to qualify.  Funded in 43 days with the help of our Canada-based loan officer, [email protected]

3. UK family buys $850K Boston condo in son’s name to develop credit

Location: BostonPrice: $850,000
Property: CondoLoan Amount: $595,000
Use: InvestmentLoan to value: 70%
Loan: AM Foreign National+Rate: 6.875%
Term: 30-year fixed

– Client bought condo in son’s name to rent out while his son attends boarding school on the East Coast.  The intention is for him to stay in the condo upon graduation from university in 4-5 years or continue to rent out to bolster his income while starting out on his career, meanwhile developing US credit for himself.  Our UK-based loan officer provided a hassle-free experience throughout their mortgage journey, [email protected]

Schedule a call with us at [email protected] to find out more! 

www.americamortgages.com

Ex-post, Ex-ante + Which States are Equity-rich?

Ex-post

Biden cancels $10,000 in student debt – timing before the mid-term elections are interesting, but no one can deny that it is a big problem that is stifling growth in many ways. The main event was Federal Reserve chairman Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, which was a reminder that inflation is being treated more seriously than we are expecting. Risk assets have been correcting ever since – yet bonds haven’t moved with the same intent indicating smart money had priced in the Fed’s response. While 10Y treasuries do not dictate mortgage rates, they 2 are correlated, and we expect some upward pressure on rates. 

Ex-ante

Over the next week, we will be paying attention to the Case-Schiller index as a gauge year-on-year home prices, and the big one is August ISM manufacturing index, which consensus has at 51.8 (under 50 is a contraction). If this is lower than consensus, it may portend to be something more recessionary. As we highlighted in last week’s “Ex-ante, Ex-post,” there is historically a big contraction in manufacturing output when rates rise to a certain extent.

US HOME PRICES

We reiterate the underlying fundamentals of housing are very supportive, with an abundant amount of equity and well-known shortage. 

In an article written by the Fed, on 7 May 2021, “Housing Supply: A Growing Deficit”, The claim in 2018, the housing shortage was 2.5 million units, and now, more recently, in 2020, the US has a housing shortage of 3.8 million units. 

That is to say, 3.8 million units are needed to not only meet the demand from the growing number of households but also to maintain a target vacancy rate of 13%. Between 2018 and 2020, the housing stock deficit increased by approximately 52% 

Elsewhere, In Bloomberg’s article published, 5 August 2022, “Almost Half of Mortgaged Homes in US Now Considered Equity-Rich .”This would be the 9th straight quarterly rise, according to the article, fuelled by strong house valuations during the pandemic area. The article definition of Equity-Rich as owners having over 50% in home equity. Some of the highest equity-rich states are Florida, California, Washington, Utah, Idaho (surprising), and Vermont. 

LOANS OF THE WEEK!

Singapore citizen purchases new development in Manhattan, New York

Location: New York CityPrice: $1,000,000
Property: CondominiumLoan Amount: $600,000
Use: InvestmentLoan-to-Value: 60%
Loan: AM Foreign National+Rate: 6.875%
Term: 30-year fixed

Singapore client attended a presentation by an international realtor on a New York condo launch. America Mortgages was attending the event and helped the client discuss the financing options available.

Philippines businessman purchases home in Florida

Location: Fort LauderdalePrice: $650,000
Property: Single Family HomeLoan Amount: $455,000
Use: InvestmentLoan-to-Value: 70%
Loan: AM Foreign National +Rate: 6.875%
Term: 30-year fixed

Referred by his local private bank, the client wanted to own a retirement home for the future (he’s only 58) but liked how rental rates have been rising in the area and also wanted more USD income.

Swedish National purchases home in Texas

Location: AustinPrice: $9,500,000
Property: Single Family HomeLoan Amount: $5,225,000
Use: InvestmentLoan-to-Value: 55%
Loan: AM HNW+ (Super Jumbo)Rate: 7.25%
Term: 5-year fixed, 30-year amortized

Swedish client saw our ad on LinkedIn and reached out to discuss the financing options for a Texas property. He was surprised at how easy it was to qualify and close for direct US lending option.

Interested in releasing equity? America Mortgages has a 97% approval rate for both U.S. Citizens & Foreign Nationals. As a company our only focus is providing market rate U.S. mortgage financing for foreign nationals and U.S. expats.

Schedule a call with us at [email protected] today! 

www.americamortgages.com

“Ex-post, Ex-ante” + When rates will fall

Welcome to our newly revamped weekly product, where we do a quick summary of salient news over the past week and what to expect the following week and beyond. It took a while to think of a catchy name for our weekly and we hope you like it. We also plan to include our house view of the major macro events and, of course, how it all relates to the global real estate markets, in particular the US.

Contents:

  • Ex-post; Ex-ante
  • Will rates decline? Yes, starting in March!
  • Why US home prices will not collapse
  • Buyer’s Guide to California
  • Loans of the week! 

Ex-post

Last week saw major headlines with UK printing a 10% inflation number and Europe continuing to see hefty price increases in energy costs, with Germany at €700 ($696) a megawatt-hour, up from under €50 in January. 

In the US, mortgage applications dipped slightly for the week ending August 12, 2022, down 2.3% week on week. Things are generally slower in all areas of the economy in August, and this is no different. 

30-year fixed rate 5.45% mortgages are down 50 bps from June 2020 highs of 5.98%

* This reference rate is for conforming Fannie Mae loans, not applicable for overseas borrowers.

Ex-ante

This week, all eyes will be on Jackson Hole, where Fed chair Jerome Powell will speak on the economic outlook at 10 am Washington time. We cannot see Powell becoming incrementally dovish at this stage, while there could be an outside chance of being less hawkish. As a firm, our house view is that given the fact that the “reputation and credibility as an institution” is under pressure, the Fed will risk over-tightening in this economic cycle – right or wrong. To us, tightening into a recession is extremely heavy-handed, but Powell certainly does not want to be remembered as Arthur Burns 2.0. 

The Trillion-dollar question is IF rates will be cut, and if so, how much?

If you look at the Eurodollar implied futures curve, you will see that the market is expecting rates to peak in March 2023 at 3.93% and then start to decline to 3.51% by December 2023, and drop to 3.03% a year later. That is to say; the market is expecting 90 bps of decline in Fed Funds by December 2024! The charts also imply that rates are expected to stay under 3% thereafter.  

3-month Eurodollar Futures Yield Curve

Credits: Barchart.com, GMG Macro Research

ISM Manufacturing Index – US 30-Year Mortgage, YoY%, 18-Month Lead Inverse”

One area of potential concern is US industrial production, which is at risk of significant contraction (below 50 on ISM Manufacturing Index is a contraction). If so, this could trigger deeper recession concerns. The next the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) report will be out September 1st. 

If you look at this chart, it appears that the ISM Manufacturing Index (black line) lags the inverse of the US average 30-year mortgage rates (red line) by about 18 months. If the US manufacturing economy pans out in this manner, the Fed may be forced to make deeper cuts and we could see a bigger decline in rates than the market is pricing in, giving another opportunity for US home buyers who are waiting for lower rates! 

Credits: TradingView, GMG Macro Research

Home Prices

There is no impending collapse. We see strength in housing prices.

As we read in the media that home prices are softening, housing starts declining, home prices are falling, and it paints a doom and gloom picture, but we cannot see a collapse in housing prices and a repeat of 2008.  

Did you know that 40% of all homes in the US are held free and clear without a mortgage?

The average outstanding mortgage is 33% of home values. There is simply too much equity in the market for a collapse. Since 2008 underwriting standards have been significantly more stringent with more regulatory oversight. More importantly, most of the outstanding mortgages were printed when rates were below 4%!

Sure, in some cities, there will be softening as residents gentrify out to lower cost of living areas. It’s no surprise that San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York City are at the tops of those cities where there are significant outflows of residents.  

According to a Redfin article on July 18, 2022, here are the:

Top outflow cities in 2Q2022:

San Francisco48,718Top destination: Sacramento
Los Angeles  40,632Top destination: San Diego
New York City 48,731 Top destination: Philadelphia

Top inflow cities in 2Q2022:

Miami12,614Top origin city: New York City
Tampa7,939Top origin city: Orlando
Phoenix11,464Top origin city: Los Angeles

Buyer’s Guide to California

Over the past 2 weeks, we have published a Deep Dive into what drives overseas buyers to California. In Part 1 – Education. We look at the top 50 public and private high schools in the state, average SAT/ACT scores, Median Income and Average Home prices and conclude the cities with the top schools tend to have the strongest property price appreciation and rental reversions.

In last week’s Part 2 – Demographics. We look at the Asian population in each of these schools and conclude the schools with the highest Asian population is another driver of home prices where the top schools are located.

This week, in Part 3 – Taxes and Benefits. We will conclude the report with a tax guide for overseas investors, how rental income is taxed and various deductions that are allowed.  

Finally, to wrap-up our Buyer’s Guide to California, we will be hosting a webinar with Susan Kim, our Private Client US Concierge Partner and top real estate experts in San Francisco, Palo Alto, Los Angeles, and Orange County to give you an on-the-ground discussion on the respective cities, where the value is now and in the future. Stay tuned!

Loans of the week!

1. Switzerland Family Office purchases luxury condo in New York

Client wanted options outside of their private bank which did not require pledging assets.

Type: Luxury Condo

Price: $20M

Loan Amount: $11M (55% LTV)

Use: Second home

Loan type: America Mortgage HNW+

Qualification: Using borrower’s liquid investment portfolio as a reference without encumbrances. (Example Fidelity account)

Term: 5-year fixed / 30-year amortized

Interest-only: Fixed for 5 years

Rate: 7.875%

2. UK technology entrepreneur purchases home in Atherton (near Palo Alto)

UK-national client attended Stanford and plans to move their children there in 3 years to attend high school. His goal was to rent out the home to tech executives or AirBNB in the interim.

Type: Single-family home

Price: $10.9M

Loan Amount: $6M (55% LTV)

Use: Investment

Loan type: America Mortgage HNW+

Qualification: Using borrower’s liquid investment portfolio as a reference without encumbrances. (Example Fidelity account)

Term: 5-year fixed / 30-year amortized

Interest-only: Fixed for 5 years

Rate: 7.25%

3. Singaporean family purchases home in San Antonio for rental income

Father attended the University of Texas and, after reading our Deep Dive report, decided to own a home where he could take advantage of the strong USD and rental income currently in San Antonio and potentially will move there for retirement.

Type: Single-family home

Price: $350,000

Loan Amount: $245,000 (70% LTV)

Use: Investment

Loan type: America Mortgage Foreign National+

Qualification: Based on overseas income and credit

Term: 30-year fixed

Rate: 6.875%

Thank you and feel free to contact us if you have any questions.

www.americamortgages.com