The “Roaring 20’s” is often considered as one of the most prosperous times in the West. WWI had just ended, and the housing market’s growth, the development of infrastructure, telephone networks, automobiles, etc., was the centerpiece of growth. America’s wealth more than doubled in the years between 1920 and ’29 with most of the wealth invested into finance and industry but there was enough trickle-down to lower-income earners to help buoy a new consumer culture.
Doesn’t this sound familiar?
In 2020, FAANG stocks (our version of industrial stocks in 1920s) doubled as well!
Meanwhile, as the world heads towards being incrementally more vaccinated, we are seeing inflation expectations rise, the first wage growth in over a decade, and a potential $3T infrastructure plan in the U.S. which draws some comparisons to FDR’s The New Deal.
Personally, I find it remarkable how the global macro narrative has shifted 180-degree only one year out from the start of a global pandemic, and also not far from when the discussions among leading economists were ‘when’ deflation would happen, not if. Now consensus, in under 12 months, has gone from deflation to inflation.
If you are looking for evidence that inflation is back, look no further than housing prices. Knight Frank reports that worldwide home prices rose 5.6% in 2020, and CoreLogic says U.S. home prices increased 10.4% year-on-year in February 2021, the highest in 15 years!
Taking some data points from Knight Frank’s survey, look at the annual % change in home prices in the major cities that Global Mortgage Group offers mortgages in.
Can you guess which city had the highest growth in the U.S., U.K., France, Canada, Australia, and Singapore? Read here to find the answer!
|Los Angeles, California||+10%|
|New York City, New York||+10%|
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Sources: World Property Journal, High Finance, History.com