In the exclusive webinar, “Macro Matters – What’s Driving Your Dollar,” Donald Klip (DK), Co-founder of America Mortgages, and Geo Chen (GC), author of the macro newsletter Fidenza Macro, shared timely insights into the current global macro landscape—including inflation, gold, crypto, U.S. dollar trends, and how they tie into U.S. real estate investing.
For those who missed it, the recording is available here.
During the session, DK and GC addressed key questions around market positioning, geopolitical risk, portfolio allocation for the second half of 2025, and why U.S. real estate continues to stand out—especially for international investors seeking yield, stability, and long-term upside.
Remarks have been edited for clarity and brevity.
What macro signals are you watching that could shift gold’s current trend?
GC: A major fiscal tightening movement in the U.S.—like Congress significantly reducing the budget deficit—could pull gold back. Another short-term factor would be a shift in bond issuance composition (favoring short over long-term debt), triggering a bond rally and a temporary dip in gold. But with central banks accumulating gold, any pullback is likely to be brief.
How should investors think about geopolitical risk, especially U.S.–China tensions, in macro positioning?
GC: Gold has proven to be a strong geopolitical hedge, rallying on tariff headlines. The key today is agility—investors must be tactical, taking profits during rallies and holding cash to buy dips. It’s also time to explore markets beyond the U.S., with countries like Argentina, Poland, and Greece offering overlooked opportunities.
What’s your outlook on the U.S. dollar, and how does it shape your views on emerging markets?
GC: We’re at the start of a multi-year dollar bear market. U.S. assets—both equities and bonds—are losing appeal, while international markets have more fiscal and political capacity to grow. Expect capital to rotate into EM equities in Asia and LatAm, which are primed for long-term outperformance.
How do you see the relationship between gold and crypto evolving? Are they competing hedges or serving specific investor needs?
GC: They’re not interchangeable. Gold is time-tested; Bitcoin is still risk-on. Bitcoin’s institutional adoption is increasing, which may reduce volatility, but it remains tied to equity market cycles. Each responds to different macro triggers and serves distinct investor appetites.
What is your recommended portfolio asset allocation going into 2H25? And where would U.S. real estate sit within the asset classes?
GC: Gold and EM equities should be key components. Historically, gold has outperformed equities during past bull cycles.
DK: U.S. residential real estate is a strong hard asset play. With tight supply and rising rental yields in many states, it’s arguably stronger now than before. We’re particularly bullish, especially given its comparative resilience to inflation and institutional interest.
Do you see investor crowding in AI or tech names as a signal of strength or fragility?
GC: Crowding has lessened since April, but valuations remain stretched. This leaves limited buffer against economic or earnings shocks.
DK: Despite the froth, institutional investors are allocating to AI due to its outsized potential. Many underestimate just how transformative AI will be—it’s still early days.
How do you see U.S. real estate performing if the dollar weakens further? Is that good or bad for international buyers?
DK: A weaker dollar is a buying opportunity for foreign investors. Yes, it affects rental income repatriation, but the real focus should be on asset fundamentals—yield, scarcity, long-term upside. U.S. property remains one of the best hard assets globally.
Where would GMG see as the top 1–2 U.S. real estate places to put money into?
DK: Texas, Ohio, Georgia, and Tennessee top the list. These states are benefiting from major infrastructure projects, EV factory developments, and demographic migration. Atlanta, in particular, offers plug-and-play appeal and institutional-grade opportunities.
U.S. real estate versus other countries like U.K., SG – how attractive is it?
DK: U.S. real estate offers the best rental yields among G20 nations. Singapore and the UK are traditionally store-of-value markets with limited cash flow upside. For investors focused on yield and inflation protection, the U.S. remains unmatched.
